Starmer's Allies Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.
Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.